Vegas spends millions of dollars getting experts to set betting lines to be as accurate as possible. This series uses Vegas opening betting lines to identify the teams with high point projections to help find sleepers and busts. Obviously don’t sit your Odell Beckham Jr. for Terrance Williams just because the Vegas projection for the Cowboys is higher than the projection for the Giants, instead, use it as a tiebreaker. The obvious must-starts like Antonio Brown and the obvious irrelevant players with 0.1% ownership won’t be mentioned.
Line of the Week:
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (-2). Over/Under 54.
Target me please, I’m good.
Highest line of the week in a game between two division leaders. The Saints will probably lean heavily on the Mark Ingram – Alvin Kamara combo as the Rams are beatable on the ground. Drew Brees and his pass-catchers get a tougher assignment against a good pass defense, but nevertheless, you should not sit him. Michael Thomas has had double-digit targets the last 3 games, making him a solid start. Ted Ginn gets a tough matchup, but caught 6 out of 6 passes thrown at him last week in a game the Saints needed to catch up in, he is a risky start. None of the other options are worth starting.
On the Rams side, the story is somewhat similar. The Saints have a good defense but are weaker against the run. Todd Gurley is someone you shouldn’t be benching anyways but it makes Jared Goff risky. This season Goff has feasted on poor defenses and struggled against good ones. Add in the fact that his top receiver Robert Woods is out for a few weeks and there is a chance for a bust game. Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp both should get bumps in usage, but a less potent offense should hurt their production. Kupp, in particular, should be hurt more due to his production primarily coming from red zone targets. The high line suggests starting both but Watkins is the better play, especially with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore hobbled.
Lines to Exploit
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-15.5). Over/Under 47.5.
Gronk chill this week.
This game should be a blow-out, and despite the Patriots defense’s numbers still looking poor, they have stepped it up recently by holding opposing QBs to 10.5, 10.7, 13.5 points in the past 3 games. Jay Cutler is in the concussion protocol and Matt Moore was atrocious in his last start. The offense should only be able to support one WR, and that person should be Jarvis Landry if Cutler plays, and Kenny Stills if Moore plays. Devante Parker should only receive production via garbage time, something you should not count on. The running backs Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake are options for owners desperate for running back production but it’s a crapshoot on who produces between the two.
On New England’s side, this is a good matchup across the team. Rob Gronkowski is risky as the team does not target him when he isn’t needed to preserve his health, and he’s probably not going to be needed this game, nevertheless, if you have Gronk, you should play Gronk. Danny Amendola has a good game against the Raiders and after the Rex Burkhead fumble, he might receive more work, making him a fine play. Speaking of Burkhead, his fumble didn’t lead to a benching, but his usage was definitely cut down, he’s an extremely risky play. Dion Lewis is the lead RB and with this game script he should feast, start him with confidence. James White and Martellus Bennett, along with other Patriots players don’t get enough usage to be fantasy options.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-8.5). Over/Under 49.
The Falcons have one of the highest projected point totals of the week and facing a weak Tampa Bay defense, it should be a field day for Atlanta. Tevin Coleman saved an inefficient outing against the Seahawks with a touchdown, but this is a much easier matchup. Devonta Freeman should return to his lead role this week, making him a good start, but Coleman keeps start status regardless. You’re not benching Julio Jones, Matt Ryan is a start, and Mohamed Sanu has turned in solid outings in 3 of the past 4 outings, making him a fine start. Austin Hooper finished last game with negative points, keep him on the bench.
On Tampa’s side, this is a fine matchup for Ryan Fitzpatrick, making him a start for owners hurting at QB. Mike Evans took most of the targets away from DeSean Jackson with his return, and although Jackson caught the touchdown, Evans is the start while Jackson can be benched. Doug Martin couldn’t get it done against a Miami defense that is falling apart and has now disappointed 3 consecutive games. The volume is still there, but you have to wonder when the coaching staff is pulling the plug on this one. The negative game script doesn’t help either. Sit him. Cameron Brate was one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets but Fitzpatrick is not the same, Brate has disappointed in 3 consecutive games, bench him. O.J. Howard had a good week, but he still doesn’t get enough usage to be a start-worthy TE.
Avoid
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) @ New York Jets. Over/Under 39.5.
But I had 4 good weeks!
The Jets have one of the lower point totals this week, and the team faces a good defense across all the positions. Robby Anderson has produced in 4 consecutive weeks before the bye but against this defense, bench him if you have a better option. Matt Forte out-touched Bilal Powell in week 9 and Powell disappointed against Tampa in week 10 with Forte out. If Forte sits, Powell is a risky start but a start nevertheless due to volume. If Forte plays, the correct move would be to sit both as they hurt each other’s value. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a decent start regardless due to the lack of good TEs in the league.
The Jets are better against the run than the pass, making Cam Newton, Devin Funchess, and potentially even Christian McCaffrey good starts as McCaffrey is mostly a pass-catcher. Greg Olsen is in line to return, making him a risky start as the Jets are poor against the TE. No other Panther is worth playing.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) @ Arizona Cardinals. Over/Under 38.
Blaine Gabbert was actually pretty good against the Seahawks, but the Jaguars defense is a different story (imagine seeing that sentence in previous years). With one of the lowest projected point totals, it would be wise to bench all Cardinal players. Jacksonville is number 1 against QB’s and WR’s, but they are beatable on the ground. Adrian Peterson disappointed the last 2 times out, but he should get enough volume to be a decent play.
Arizona is bad against the pass, and you shouldn’t be sitting Leonard Fournette anyways. Blake Bortles didn’t get it done against Cleveland, but this matchup should have him turn out a decent day. Marcedes Lewis is a touchdown-dependent TE, he’s a preferred bench despite the matchup. Marqise Lee is hobbled and Dede Westbrook didn’t light the world on fire with his return. Lee is a start if practice reports are positive, and you should take a wait-and-see approach on Westbrook.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14). Over/Under 42.
The Packers have the lowest projected point total of the week, nobody gets a good matchup so bench everybody except Davante Adams purely because of volume and potential garbage time production.
For Pittsburgh, start your studs and monitor Juju Smith-Schuster’s status, bench him if he doesn’t get a practice in this week. Martavis Bryant is an upside start especially if Smith-Schuster misses, but you’re praying for long TD’s here.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5). Over/Under 38.
Back to save the Ravens offense.
DeAndre Hopkins has been good despite the quarterback change, start him regardless of the matchup. Outside of that, Lamar Miller should still be solid especially with the injury to D’Onta Foreman, and Andre Ellington shouldn’t be too involved in his first game with the team. Bench everybody else in this bad matchup.
Joe Flacco gets the best QB matchup, but he hasn’t scored more than 15.1 points all year, start him only if desperate. The Texans have a good run defense, but game script should cancel it out for Alex Collins. Danny Woodhead is also a good start after leading the team in targets in his first game back. Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are both upside starts in this matchup.
