Vegas spends millions of dollars getting experts to set betting lines to be as accurate as possible. This series uses Vegas opening betting lines to identify the teams with high point projections to help find sleepers and busts. Obviously don’t sit your A.J. Green for Terrance Williams just because the Vegas projection for the Cowboys is higher than the projection for the Giants, instead, use it as a tiebreaker. The obvious must-starts like Antonio Brown and the obvious irrelevant players with 0.1% ownership won’t be mentioned.
Line of the Week:
New England Patriots (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Over/Under 54.5.
Gronk is back in time for an angry Patriots game
The highest over/under by a full touchdown as the Patriots are road favorites against the Steelers. Tom Brady has disappointed in 2 consecutive weeks but he is a start in this projected shootout especially as Rob Gronkowski is back after his suspension. Gronk is an auto-start, along with Brandin Cooks, Dion Lewis, and Rex Burkhead. Chris Hogan returned from a shoulder injury but only caught 1 out of 5 passes for 1 yard. The red zone usage is still encouraging but he is too risky to play this week. James White and Danny Amendola both contributed last week but they are both benches as the Patriots are getting healthier.
You don’t need me to tell you to start Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. But beyond that it gets interesting. Jesse James had a career-high 97 yards in a game with Juju Smith-Schuster suspended and Eli Rogers ineffective. Don’t expect James to repeat that performance as the Patriots are decent against the position. Smith-Schuster is an intriguing option, he’s touchdown dependent, but is a start for owners in a pinch. Martavis Bryant is not worth owning.
Lines to Exploit
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints (-15.5). Over/Under 47.
15.5 point favorites makes this one of the most lopsided lines of the season. Unfortunately, there are only 4 players who benefit in Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. The only one who could give you slight pause is Kamara, as he has not cleared the concussion protocol as of Thursday, monitor his status and start him if he’s cleared. Nobody else gets enough volume as Ted Ginn has 5 targets in his last 2 games (sit him). Tommylee Lewis had an amazing fantasy game against the Falcons but he also should not be started.
For the Jets, losing Josh McCown hurts as Bryce Petty is not a capable QB. Bench all the Jets players if you can. Robby Anderson actually had good days in Petty’s 2 okay games last year, but Petty has more bad games than okay games.
Atlanta Falcons (-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Over/Under 47.5
Peyton Barber has been great in his limited touches.
The Falcons are road favorites against an atrocious Tampa Bay defense. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman are auto-starts. Tevin Coleman is a sit due to 2 consecutive poor games and being in the concussion protocol as of Thursday. Mohamed Sanu is a good start due to the matchup, especially if Coleman sits.
The return of Jameis Winston has actually hurt Mike Evans’ production as his target numbers have gone down drastically. Evans is a bench. The Falcons pass defense has been legit this season and DeSean Jackson doesn’t get enough targets to be a start, bench him. Cameron Brate had O.J. Howard take over his role in last week’s game, but neither are start-worthy, although Howard is the better option. Doug Martin started last week’s game and got a touchdown, but was otherwise ineffective and benched midway through the game. Do not be surprised if Peyton Barber is the Tampa starter, start him if he starts.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-1). Over/Under 47.5.
This is the perfect week for Mike Davis to have a great fantasy game.
Rams-Seahawks games are always fun, and this game is set to deliver. Todd Gurley is a must-start. Jared Goff has been mediocre in the last 2 games, don’t expect it to get better against Seattle. Cooper Kupp has been awesome in Robert Woods’ absence but he takes a hit if Woods returns, he is a good start without Woods and a risky one with. The Seahawks pass defense is not what it once was, making Woods a start if practice reports are positive. Sammy Watkins has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games but with Woods potentially coming back, Watkins is a sit.
The Rams are great against the pass but weak against the run. Mike Davis had an effective 2 games as Seattle’s lead back, but he’s injured and owners need to monitor practice reports. Start him if they’re positive. J.D. McKissic is a start if Davis misses. Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Jimmy Graham are auto-starts, and nobody else on the team is worth starting.
Lines to Avoid
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5). Over/Under 39.5.
Down to their 3rd quarterback T.J. Yates, the Texans are not projected to score many points at all against Jacksonville’s elite defense. The one consistent producer for Houston is DeAndre Hopkins, and he’s hot enough to be started despite the matchup. Lamar Miller is also a start as due to usage, but temper expectations. Sit everyone else.
For Jacksonville, Blake Bortles is a good stream as the Texans pass defense is terrible. Leonard Fournette is a start due to volume and game script. Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook are both starts due to the good matchup. Keelan Cole had 2 consecutive good weeks but only has 3 targets in each game, that’s not enough volume for him to be a start.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) @ New York Giants. Over/Under 40.
Jay Ajayi is here to finally break out.
Get well soon Carson Wentz, you were awesome to watch this season. With him out, every Philly pass catcher is hindered, but Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz should still be auto-starts. Nelson Agholor is, unfortunately, a sit until Foles shows that he can support him. Jay Ajayi finally broke out as lead back last week, despite it still being a time-share, he is a good start as the Eagles might rely on the run more. LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement are sits.
Expect the Eagles defense to play hard and play well this week after the Wentz news. Evan Engram is still a start due to the shallowness of his position, but everybody else are sits.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings (-10). Over/Under 41.
Oh dear, the Bengals were nearly shut out by the Bears last week. Bench everybody except A.J. Green against a scary Vikings defense. Giovani Bernard is a potential start purely out of volume if Joe Mixon does not clear the concussion protocol in time.
The Bengals run defense is atrocious so start Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon with confidence. The pass defense, however, is still solid, but Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs are good enough to overcome that, start them too, especially the WR’s with Kyle Rudolph hindered.
