Photos taken at Las Vegas.
Week 5 Starts and Sits
We use Vegas lines to predict who we should play.
Vegas spends millions of dollars getting experts to set betting lines to be as accurate as possible. This series uses Vegas opening betting lines to identify the teams with high point projections to help identify sleepers and busts. Obviously don’t sit your Odell Beckham Jr. for Terrance Williams just because the Vegas projection for the Cowboys is higher than the projection for the Giants, instead, use it as a tiebreaker. The obvious must-starts like Antonio Brown and the obvious irrelevant players with 0.1% ownership won’t be mentioned. The lines are color-coded, green for high scoring, red for low scoring.
Line of the Week:
New England Patriots -4 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 54.0 Over/Under
Highest line of the week, New England is projected to beat Tampa Bay 29-25, as such you want to get all your players from these two teams in. Fire up your studs but also take a look at Mike Gillislee, James White, and Danny Amendola from the Patriots, as well as Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, and in deeper leagues Adam Humphries from the Buccaneers.
Other Teams with Good Lines to Exploit:
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers. 44.5 Over/Under
Not a great over/under but the Steelers are projected to win big. This makes Ben Roethlisberger a good option despite consecutive poor outings the past two weeks. Martavis Bryant and Juju Smith-Schuster are sleeper starts. Also, make sure to fire up your Steelers D/ST.
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles. 45 Over/Under
Mediocre over/under but with the Eagles being favorites by almost a touchdown, there is potential here. On top of must-starts Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery, perhaps consider Carson Wentz and Wendell Smallwood, as the Cardinals have been pretty good against the run making passing out the backfield a smart plan of attack by the Eagles. Smallwood getting goal-line work last week further increases the optimism. Eagles D/ST is also a great option.
Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ Dallas Cowboys. 53 Over/Under
The second highest line of the week, this means start your studs from both teams. Randall Cobb is an amazing play especially with Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams questionable and trending to be out. This could also be the week Martellus Bennett breaks out due to injuries to Rodgers’ other pass catchers. Aaron Jones should be a solid option if Montgomery and Jamaal Williams are out. Geronimo Allison is a deep league sleeper.
For Dallas, other than the studs, Terrance Williams is worth a look, despite not doing much this season, he has gotten 5.5 targets a game and in a shoot-out style game, he has potential to do well. Jason Witten benefits from the matchup but the Packers have defended tight ends well so expectations should be tempered. Cole Beasley is a deep league sleeper, Dak Prescott relied on Beasley last year to move the chains, but so far this year he has been force-feeding Dez Bryant with mixed results, at 2-2 and heading into a shootout, Prescott might be forced to give Beasley more looks.
Teams with Bad Lines to Avoid:
Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals. 39.0 Over/Under
The Bills have the lowest projected point total this week, with the exception of LeSean McCoy all Bills players could be avoided. Tyrod Taylor’s receiving group is down to Zay Jones and Andre Holmes, neither of whom impressed, so this is a good week to sit Taylor. Charles Clay gets a difficult matchup but with the lack of other options, he should be okay.
The Bengals are also not projected to score a lot of points. Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, and Giovani Bernard should take a seat on the bench with every Bengal player not named A.J. Green. Bengals D/ST is a solid option with the low projected score total.
New York Jets +2.5 @ Cleveland Browns. 39.0 Over/Under
Why are the Jets not in red? Despite the low point total, you’re not starting most of their players anyways and the Browns are exploitable. Bilal Powell is a start no matter what.
This could be Isaiah Crowell’s best chance for a breakout performance due to positive game flow, but remember the Browns were favored against the Colts in week 3 and Crowell still disappointed. Keep sitting him and get ready to offer him to other teams if he plays well on your bench. Don’t bother with Browns players not named Duke Johnson Jr.
Baltimore Ravens +4 @ Oakland Raiders. 40 Over/Under
The Ravens have the 2nd lowest projected score this week, Alex Collins and Ravens D/ST should be the only two Ravens to consider.
Losing Derek Carr hurts all Raider players. If you can, bench Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree this week. After the Jaguars and Steelers dominated Baltimore on the ground, and with EJ Manuel playing, expect a healthy dose of Marshawn Lynch.
Other lines for next week’s games:
Los Angeles Chargers +4 @ New York Giants. 44.5 Over/Under
Tennessee Titans -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins. No Over/Under
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts. 43 Over/Under
Carolina Panthers +3 @ Detroit Lions. 43.5 Over/Under
Seattle Seahawks +0 @ Los Angeles Rams. 46 Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @ Houston Texans. 47 Over/Under
Minnesota Vikings -3 @ Chicago Bears. No Over/Under
All the teams here have middling projections with exception to Titan-Dolphins and Vikings-Bears due to uncertainties with Marcus Mariota and Sam Bradford respectively.
