We like Carolina over Atlanta using the 538 method.
For those unfamiliar, 538 has a program in which you can predict the NFL games each week. You are told to pick each game by choosing the percentage chance you are confident in the game. For example, I am very the Eagles will beat the Broncos this weekend, so I put 75% Eagles victory. However, I am less confident in the Ravens beating the Titans, so I only put 60% on the Ravens victory. You are punished for being overconfident if you lose and you don’t get as many points if you’re conservative but right, so the percent you choose is critical. I have completed 28 forecasts the last two weeks, getting two wrong last week and six wrong the week prior. I have 180.6 points so far, somehow good for better than 86% of players.
Here are my week nine picks.
Atlanta at Carolina
Atlanta has been a major disappointment this year. Their offense has regressed dramatically, only scoring 20 points a game after last year’s record-breaking season. They also struggle heavily with protecting against the blitz, something Carolina will look to abuse in this matchup. Their defense has disappointed too, becoming a league average unit that is unable to make up for the offense’s shortcomings. On the other side of the coin, the Panthers defense has been one of the league’s best, only allowing 17 points per game, only allowing 3 points 3 separate times this season. Their offense is suspect, but I expect their defense to take care of business here. 75% Carolina.
Baltimore at Tennessee
These are two teams that seem to be a week to week propositions right now. Both teams supposed strengths are underperforming, Tennessee’s run game and Baltimore’s run defense. That being said, the Ravens defense is playing well right now and has the potential to be one of the league’s best units when it’s on. While Joe Flacco and his receivers are highly suspect, I trust budding star Alex Collins to aid the Raven’s defense in a victory here. The Titans need to win this game if they want to be taken seriously down the road. 60% Baltimore.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Jacksonville should handle this game. Cincinnati could barely move the ball on a decrepit Indianapolis defense, and things will only get harder against what could be the best secondary in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Not to mention Jacksonville currently leads the league in sacks at 33 and is on pace the break the ‘84 Bears record of 72 sacks in a season by 3 sacks. This shouldn’t even be a game, especially with Leonard Fournette coming back into the fold. 85% Jacksonville.
Denver at Philadelphia
This is an interesting game to me. With Osweiler in, the Broncos hope to limit turnovers, run the ball, and keep the score low. Unfortunately, all three of those things seem very unlikely against a Philadelphia team that is on fire, with one of the best defensive fronts in the league that will likely dominate the line of scrimmage against a weak Broncos offensive line. The Eagles are also performing extremely well on offense right now, especially on third down. If the Broncos hope to win this game, they’ll need to force MVP candidate Carson Wentz to make some mistakes. I don’t trust this Denver offense right now, I’m giving Philly 70% in this one.
Indianapolis at Houston
Before Deshaun Watson’s injury, this would have been a lock for Houston. I am actually going to go with the Colts in this game. I trust Jacoby Brissett, T.Y. Hilton, and Frank Gore to take advantage of the banged-up Houston defense. Take this pick as more of an indictment against Tom Savage than a pick for the Colts. The Colts themselves do have an awful defense which could lend itself to Savage having an above average game, but I don’t trust him at this point. 60% Colts.
L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants
I expect the Rams to handle this game. Their defense is rapidly improving, and their offense is rolling as well. Todd Gurley is having a CBPOY/MVP type of year and Sean McVay and Wade Phillips are proving how big of a difference great coaching can make. The Giants are still weaponless on offense outside of Evan Engram and are dealing with the suspension of Pro-Bowl corner Janoris Jenkins. Rams should win convincingly, I’m giving them a 75% chance in the Meadowlands.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Tampa Bay is probably this year’s most disappointing team. It seemed to be the year they would put it all together, with numerous weapons on offense and some pieces on defense. However, they sit at 2-5 and after this game, they’ll be 2-6. Like the Bucs, the Saints are a surprise in this year’s season, just for different reasons. Riding a five-game win streak, they are winning with a run-first offense and a well above average defense. Their rookie class has made an immediate impact, with Marshon Lattimore operating as a shutdown corner and Alvin Kamara being used effectively in tandem with perennially underrated Mark Ingram. Ted Ginn Jr. is also contributing to this offense in a surprising way, usually, in misdirection or jet sweeps to utilize his YAC ability at the line of scrimmage. I am very high on this Saints team, and I’m giving them at 80% chance to win.
Arizona at San Francisco
Neither of these teams inspires confidence. Arizona is lucky to have three wins, and that was before starting QB Carson Palmer went down. The 49ers are winless and talentless. I’ll pick the Cards here because I expect Adrian Peterson and Larry Fitz to have big days against a 49ers defense that lost some talent to trades and cuts. And this Arizona defense should be able to handle whatever QB the 49ers trot out this week. 60% Cards.
Washington at Seattle
This Washington team is banged up. Their starting offensive lineman are players who were on the street weeks ago. Their defense is missing multiple members. Jordan Reed is out again. I don’t see any way they win this game against a Seattle team that will have its way up front and will get after Kirk Cousins. On top of that, Russell Wilson is warming up, and the Seahawks passing attack is nothing to laugh at. I expect Seattle to take care of business at home, I give them an 80% chance to win.
Kansas City at Dallas
Something that has been underplayed is how poorly this Kansas City defense is playing. They rank in the bottom 5 of the league in YPG Allowed, Pass YPG allowed, Rush YPG allowed, Yards/Play allowed, and Big Plays allowed. They will be abused against a Cowboys offense that is suddenly rolling, scoring 34.2 points a game since week 3. This game should develop into a shoutout, but I trust the Cowboys offense right now, especially with Ezekiel Elliott being allowed to play. I give Dallas a 70% chance to take care of this at home.
Oakland at Miami
This game features the league’s 31st offense squaring off against the league’s 31st ranked defense. Miami’s horrible offense, now without Jay Ajayi, will face off against an Oakland defense that has historically forced zero interceptions through 8 games. I’m going to go with Miami in this game because I think their defense can take care of business. And the ‘Phins are getting Jay Cutler back, something that at the very least can’t hurt them. 60% chance of Miami to take care business and to continue their very weird season with another win.
Detroit at Green Bay
An Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay should be easy pickings for the Lions. Brett Hundley is only in his second career start, and this Lions defense has shown a propensity for taking the ball away early in the season. If the Lions can fix their short yardage and red zone struggles, this game could delve into blowout territory. But until that happens, I’ll be cautiously taking the Lions and giving them a 65% chance to win.
Share your picks with me or argue with me on Twitter, @gmhillyer.
