There were a few notable storylines that defined the NFL this season… the protests, the injuries to stars (like David Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Aaron Rodgers), the injuries to breakout stars (Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz), some great seasons from the likes of Tom Brady, Todd Gurley, and AB/DeAndre Hopkins.
But to me, the defining storyline of the season has been the surprise success of teams with unheralded quarterbacks. Jacksonville went 10-6, the L.A. Rams went 11-5, the Minnesota Vikings went 13-3.
When you consider the QB’s helming those units, it’s downright shocking. Last season, Blake Bortles, Jared Goff, and Case Keenum were not good quarterbacks. If you combined their numbers over the 2016 season, they totaled 37 touchdowns passes, 34 interceptions, and a yards/attempt of 6.2. This season, they’ve all taken sizable steps up. For 2017, they combine for 71 touchdown passes against 27 interceptions, for a yards/attempt of 7.5.
Is that surprise success going to last through the playoffs? It’s impossible to tell. Trying to speculate (with very specific predictions) has always bitten me in the past, but that’s never stopped me from stubbornly trying anyway. Let’s predict the outcomes for those surprise QBs.
Blake Bortles
How much longer can Bortles keep producing at this level?
ROUND ONE. # 6 Buffalo at # 3 Jacksonville. Blake Bortles and company couldn’t ask for a better playoff matchup than an overachieving Bills’ team that could be one of the weaker playoff units of recent memory.
prediction: The Bills’ pass defense, one of the strengths of their team, limits Blake Bortles into a mediocre day. 217 yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 1 rush TD. However, the fierce Jags’ defense isn’t going to let them lose, or even allow this to stay close. Jags win, 24-10. Bortles rolls on.
ROUND TWO. # 3 Jacksonville at # 2 Pittsburgh. At first glance you may think a Pittsburgh blowout here, but let’s remember this is a Jags team that stomped the Steelers in the regular season and forced Big Ben into 5 interceptions.
prediction: I suspect the Steelers will respect the Jags’ defense a lot more this time around. In fact, their strategy should be to keep it on the ground and pound the ball against an iffier Jags’ run defense. As a result, this game may get tight. Blake Bortles may have a chance to pull off a big win! But… no. He blows it with an ugly interception in the 4th quarter that loses the game 24-17 and brings up all those old concerns again. Bortles finishes with 228 yards, 1 TD, 2 int, and the label of a R2 PUMPKIN.
Jared Goff
ROUND ONE. # 6 Atlanta at # 3 L.A. Rams. The Rams enter the playoffs as a sleeper in the NFC. However, their first round matchup isn’t a cakewalk, as the Falcons have the talent to match up if they can wake up out of their funk.
prediction: The Falcons’ speedy defense may be able to slow the Rams down to some degree and keep this game close in a back and forth battle. Goff goes for a solid line of 237 yards, 2 TD, 1 int. However, Aaron Donald forces some pressure and causes a Matt Ryan interception late, allowing the Rams to pull out a 30-27 victory.
ROUND TWO. # 3 L.A. Rams at # 2 Minnesota. The Rams need to take their show on the road now and face a stiffer Vikings defense.
prediction: This appears to be an especially tough matchup for the Rams. The Vikes have a top run defense, and have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to runners as well. That’s important when it comes to Todd Gurley, who’s become such a threat and safety valve in the passing game. With Gurley limited, Jared Goff will have to win this game on his own. And… he can’t do it. He struggles mightily, throwing 2 picks and losing a fumble in a 24-13 loss. It’s an ugly game that earns him the label of a R2 PUMPKIN.
Case Keenum
ROUND ONE. bye. congrats, Minnesota fans.
ROUND TWO. # 3 L.A. Rams at # 2 Minnesota
prediction: If my prediction that the Vikings’ defense can swallow up Gurley and the Rams’ offense holds true, then Case Keenum’s job should be easy. He needs to manage this game, keep scoring some points, and walk out of here with a victory. He has a solid total: 237 yards, 2 TDs, 0 int, that generates some momentum for the NFC title game.
ROUND THREE. # 4 New Orleans at # 2 Minnesota. We’re projecting that the Saints beat the Wentz-less Philadelphia Eagles and head into Minnesota for the title game. Minnesota starts to feel like a team of destiny here, needing just one more win for a local Super Bowl appearance.
prediction: Unfortunately for Minnesota, this surging Saints team looks harder to stop. If they try to shut off the run game, Drew Brees can still move the ball easily, and vice versa. With both team scoring, Case Keenum will need to step up and become more than a game manager to win this one. He plays well for most of the game, but some Cam Jordan/Sheldon Rankins pressures finally get to him, causing him to take a nasty sack+fumble that proves crucial. Saints escape with the upset win, 27-24. Keenum plays OK (244 yards, 2 TD, 1 int, fumble) so it’s difficult to label him a “pumpkin,” but he won’t be playing in the Super Bowl.
