Sep 30, 2017; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley (26) warms up prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: USATSI-359773 ORIG FILE ID: 20170930_jla_ai8_139.jpg Todd Gurley ranks as the 10th best RB prospect of the 2000’s.
I want to acknowledge that I’m a complete amateur when it comes to NFL Draft evaluations. I’m not a former player or a coach and I don’t sit up at night and splice game film. However, I have been following and writing about the NFL Draft as a fan since before 2000, so I feel like I have some knowledge about the historical context for these top prospects.
Given that, I hope it means something when I watch Penn State RB Saquon Barkley play football and come away thinking: this may be the greatest running back prospect I’ve ever seen.
Why? There are a number of reasons.
PURE RUNNING ABILITY. Obviously, this is the first thing you look for in a runner. The production is there: after two 1000 yard seasons, he’s already up to 518 rushing yards on 7.8 yards per carry so far this year. With Barkley, it’s more than a stat line; his greatness shows up every carry. He has a natural shiftiness to him and power to the hole. In terms of his lateral quickness and cutting ability, he reminds me of LeSean McCoy, which is high praise for a runner.
RECEIVING ABILITY. Barkley’s not a one-dimensional runner by any means. He’s steadily improved his receiving ability — going from 161 yards as a freshman to 402 last year to 335 already this season. 335 yards in 4 games. Unbelievable. Suffice it to say: a RB’s ability to catch passes is more important than ever, so Barkley checks that box in a big way.
BODY TYPE. One of the most underrated aspects of running backs in my mind is their durability. A runner like Curtis Martin or late-stage Frank Gore may not be the most talented and electric runners in the league, but they have the durability to start for 10 seasons. Body type has a lot to do with this. Tall runners — especially ones who run tall — tend to take more punishment and sustain more injuries. The most durability runners: your Emmitt Smiths, your LaDainian Tomlinsons, tend to be short and squat power backs with lower centers of gravity. Saquon Barkley not only fits that prototype — he is that prototype. He’s 5’10″/5’11” and maybe 220/230 pounds, with legs that look like tree trunks. He has a natural power base that should hold up really well at the next level.
Dating back to 2000, 40 running backs have been drafted in the first round. I’m going to rank the best prospects among them and determine afterward where Barkley may fit in at the moment. I did a similar exercise with Myles Garrett and edge rushers earlier this year.
Some caveats:
— We’re ranking running back prospects’ value AT THE TIME of their draft. Obviously, some succeeded, some did not. Their NFL careers should not impact their ranking.
— You can’t totally gauge based on draft position, either. Simply put: running backs have been devalued over time in the draft. For example, five runners went in the first round in 2008. Not a single runner went in the first round in 2013 or 2014.
Without further ado, here are the top running back PROSPECTS (judged based on their draft) since 2000.
Top 10 RB prospects (at the time of their draft)
(10) Todd Gurley, Georgia, #10 in 2015
A healthy Todd Gurley may have cracked the top 5. His combination of power and receiving ability is truly rare in a running back prospect. However, at the time of the draft, Todd Gurley was not healthy. There were even rumors that he may miss his entire rookie season. In fact, it was considered a little bit of a “reach” and risk when the Rams selected him in the top 10 for that reason. Of course, the fact that he went in the top 10 despite that concern shows how transcendent of a talent he was.
Another runner who may have ranked in the top 5 if not for injury concerns could have been Miami’s Willis McGahee. One of the best college runners ever, a devastating injury caused him to sag all the way to #23 in 2003. In fact, that was also considered a major “reach” and risk at the time.
(9) LaDainian Tomlinson, TCU, #5 in 2001
In college, LaDainian Tomlinson was an absolute stud runner, tallying 2158 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns as a senior. There was no doubt about his running instincts, agility, power, and frame for the position.
It’s funny looking back at it now, but the major concern with Tomlinson actually was his receiving ability. At TCU, the team didn’t use Tomlinson in the passing game whatsoever — he had only 40 receiving yards as a senior. Tomlinson serves as a stark reminder to NFL teams that a runner’s receiving stats can often be a reflection of how he’s used, not his skills. In fact, Tomlinson went on to catch 100 passes in a single season for San Diego.
(8) Thomas Jones, Virginia, #7 in 2000
This may bristle some folks because Thomas Jones wasn’t even the first runner selected in 2000 — that would be Jamal Lewis, who went #5 to Baltimore. However, the Ravens selected Lewis as a result of his size/speed combo and perceived upside (which turned out to be justified.) Lewis had some injury issues that would have ranked him lower on most team’s boards.
Meanwhile, Thomas Jones was the safer pick. In fact, he may have been one of the safer selections on this list. He excelled as a runner (1798 rushing yards as a senior), and a receiver (239 yards was solid at the time). He had good shiftiness and speed (4.45 in the 40). There were no real knocks against Jones as a top 10 pick. His career didn’t turn out to be a great one, but he was as risk-free of a selection at the time as you’ll find.
(7) Leonard Fournette, LSU, #4 in 2017
In terms of power running, you don’t get any better than Leonard Fournette. His college career reminds you a lot of Adrian Peterson‘s in that way. Both were hyped as the consensus #1 prospect in high school and proved that early on in college, with Fournette rumbling for 1953 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns as a sophomore.
Like Peterson, Fournette missed time as a junior, which caused some concern about how well he’d hold up at the next level. He was also perceived to have limits in the passing game that knocked his stock outside of this top 5.
(6) Ronnie Brown, Auburn, #2 in 2005
Oddly enough, Ronnie Brown was not the star RB for his own Auburn team. That would have been Carnell “Cadillac” Williams (who went #5 in the same year.) In fact, Ronnie Brown never rushed for more than 1008 yards in any season in college.
But the reason that Ronnie Brown went #2, and would be ranked higher than Leonard Fournette, is because of his versatility and well-rounded game. Brown was a great athlete (he ran a 4.43 40 despite being a bigger back), and had a knack for the receiving game, logging 313 yards his last year in college. There were simply no red flags to be found with Brown as a prospect, with every team expecting the best to come. In fact, his lighter usage in college was regarded as a positive, seeing as how he didn’t have as much wear and tear as other top backs.
(5) Trent Richardson, Alabama, #3 in 2012
Another back who shined in a committee for most of college, Trent Richardson turned out to be one of the bigger busts in NFL Draft history. But that does not take away from the fact that he was one of the best RB prospects in NFL Draft history.
Richardson looked like the total package in college. His best quality was his power and tenacious running style, famously described as a rolling ball of butcher knives. He also demonstrated receiving prowess as well (338 yards in his last year.) While he often looked stuck in the mud in the NFL, his speed wasn’t a big question mark after he ran a 4.45 40.
Looking back, there were red flags. Richardson wasn’t as productive as his backfield mate Mark Ingram in college. And although Richardson got high marks for his character, he ended up gaining weight and losing any sense of explosiveness.
(4) Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State, #4 in 2016
There was some concern that Ezekiel Elliott benefited from a superior college team, a la Trent Richardson, but other than that, you couldn’t find many red flags on his talent.
The home run hitter excelled in college — rushing for 1800+ yards in back to back years — and did so with 6.7 career yards per carry. He also excelled in pass protection, which has become an important quality in running backs. In fact, I don’t recall it being discussed much at all before Elliott.
There were some questions about Elliott’s character and his personal life, even back in college, but as someone sitting at home without an investigative team to rely on, I can’t really know how big of a concern that was at the time. In terms of everything else, the kid was a can’t-miss top 5 prospect.
(3) Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma, #7 in 2007
In terms of pure running ability, Adrian Peterson would rank #1 on the list. The only runner that I remember who could compare to Peterson in that regard would be Ricky Williams (drafted pre-2000), but Peterson had better long speed than Williams.
A superstar high school prospect, Peterson dominated college from the get-go, running for 1925 yards as a true freshman. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that Peterson could have been a top 10 pick as a freshman — or even as a high school senior. He was that advanced for his age.
The problem Peterson ran into was that he was legally obligated to stay for 3 years. He ran for 1000 yards three seasons in a row, but did suffer some wear and tear and missed time. Concerns about a collarbone injury caused his stock to sag some — which explains how he lasted until the #7 pick. If not for injuries, he’d rank #1. Ironically, Peterson turned out to be more durable than many other prospects on here.
(2) Darren McFadden, Arkansas, #4 in 2008
Want a runner back with “tools?” As a college back, Darren McFadden had so many that they couldn’t be contained by his position. The Razorbacks used him — effectively — as a wildcat quarterback to get the ball in his hands even more often.
As a pure running back, McFadden had it all. Production (1000 yards for three straight years), power, and speed (4.33 in the 40-yard dash.) Given all that potential, McFadden’s NFL career could be seen as a little underwhelming, but he was absolutely supposed to be a superstar at the time. Looking back, his frame (tall and thin-legged, almost like a WR) should have been a bigger concern.
(1) Reggie Bush, USC, #2 in 2006
You can dissect running backs in a number of different categories, but Reggie Bush simply had the “magic.” He was a multi-purpose runner who excelled as a pure back (1740 rushing yards on 8.7 yards per carry in his final year) but also contributed in the passing game with 478 receiving yards.
Bush didn’t have the pure power of other star backs but made up for that with speed (4.33 in the 40) and natural elusiveness in the open field. His highlight-filled college career naturally led to comparisons to Barry Sanders.
More than any other running back in the 2000s, Reggie Bush merited talk about being the #1 overall pick, which is why he’s #1 on this list as well.
So where does Saquon Barkley rank?
Unfortunately, it’s impossible to pinpoint an exact rank on Saquon Barkley at the moment until we find out his 40 yard dash time. Like it or not, it still matters to an NFL player’s draft stock. Aside from power back Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley (who didn’t run, due to injury), all the runners in this top 10 ran at least 4.47 or better.
Where Barkley fits into that is murky right now. There’s an outdated mark of 4.6 from high school; there are spring reports about him running sub 4.4.
If Barkley runs in the 4.55 range, that’s a respectable number for a back of his size. However, it’d make it difficult for him to crack the top 10 of this particular list.
If Barkley runs around 4.50 flat, then I would feel comfortable vaulting him into the top 5 on this list. He’s a more impressive and versatile runner than Trent Richardson, for example.
If Barkley runs in the 4.40-4.45 range, then we’re talking about arguably the single greatest running back prospect in the 2000s.
Hopefully for his sake, and all our sakes, Barkley continues to stay healthy until the draft, so he can bring all those tools to the NFL.
