Phoenix Suns coach Alvin Gentry gestures during the first half of the Suns’ NBA basketball game against the Chicago Bulls in Chicago on Saturday, Jan. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) ** Usable by LA and DC Only **
Three years ago, the Golden State Warriors fired a winning and popular (with the media) coach in Mark Jackson and replaced him with Steve Kerr. Almost overnight, the Warriors jolted from “good” to “great.”
After the Kerr Effect, we saw plenty of teams trying to chase the same instant success. Coaches, even playoff coaches, were getting the boot. Goodbye Tom Thibodeau, see ya Frank Vogel, we want to hit the NOS button with a new coach!
As it turns out… it’s not that easy. The new coaches haven’t made enormous differences quite yet. As a result, we have a boatload of new coaches in the NBA that are still getting their feet wet with their franchises. In fact, not a single coach has been fired this season so far; a remarkable turn given the recent history.
But as we wind down the regular season, coaching rumors and tension could bubble up to the surface again.
Which coaches will — or should — get fired? Here’s my humble opinion, but please add your own in the comments.
(“Hot seat” coaches listed by losses)
We’re inclined to give Kenny Atkinson another season to turn things around.
Kenny Atkinson, Brooklyn, 16-58
The Nets are clearly the worst team in the league, but no one can fault first-year coach Kenny Atkinson for that. He signed up for the biggest rebuilding job since Brett Brown and so far has been holding up his end well. He should be in Brooklyn for quite a while. verdict: KEEP HIM
Luke Walton, L.A. Lakers, 21-53
Like Atkinson, Luke Walton is a first-year coach who has flashed promise so far in his rookie season. The young pup Lakers regressed record-wise as the season went on, but that was all by design to keep their top 3 pick in play. There are still some lingering questions about franchise building block D’Angelo Russell, but none about their 36-year-old head coach. verdict: KEEP HIM
Earl Watson, Phoenix, 22-53
Earl Watson can make the same argument that Luke Walton can — in theory. He’s a former player turned young coach (37) who’s getting his feet wet in his first full season at the helm. However, I don’t believe this case is as cut and dry as Walton’s. The Suns have more veteran talent on the team, and arguably their best player in Eric Bledsoe isn’t a rookie or sophomore — he’s 27.
In a sense, Watson’s coaching reign in Phoenix reminds me of Jacque Vaughn in Orlando. Both were likable former players, but green in terms of their coaching acumen. Vaughn lasted only 2 and a half years in Orlando, and I don’t imagine Watson will go much longer than that.
To be honest, the decision whether to keep or fire Watson may come down to the lottery. If the Suns wind up with a top 3 pick and have the chance to land a superstar prospect, then this post may become an attractive destination. In that case, I’d fire Earl Watson and find a more proven leader. If the Suns slip down to #4 or #5, then maybe it’s fine to keep Watson around for another year. But personally, I don’t see the point of keeping a coach around if you’re not convinced he’s the answer, so I’ll go on record and give the verdict: FIRE HIM.
Frank Vogel, Orlando, 27-47
Certainly, GM Rob Hennigan deserves the lion’s share of the blame for his hodgepodge mess of a roster, but first-year coach Frank Vogel didn’t exactly light the world on fire, either. Frank-ly (GET IT?!), I expected more from Vogel given all his success in Indiana.
Still, let’s keep a cool head here. Vogel’s a respected coach, still in his first season with the team. He deserves at least another year or two to turn this around. verdict: KEEP HIM
Brett Brown, Philadelphia, 28-46
If the Sixers “Process” is Survivor, then Brett Brown has outwitted, outlasted and outplayed Sam Hinkie. He’s finishing up his 4th season as the head coach of this team, even if it means a grand total of 75 wins so far. But just because you have a bad team doesn’t give you a free pass for the rest of your life. In his three prior seasons, Brett Brown didn’t show me much in the way of coaching or player development.
However, this year is the actually the first time that I’m starting to believe in him. The Sixers’ 28-46 record isn’t great, obviously, but it’s better. Their point differential (-5.2) is a marked improvement from the prior three years (-10.2, -9.0, -10.5) despite missing Joel Embiid for half the season and #1 pick Ben Simmons for the entire year. The sails are pointed in the right direction here. Given that, I’ll say verdict: KEEP HIM. He deserves at least one more year (with Simmons) to cement himself.
Jeff Hornacek, N.Y. Knicks, 28-46
Whatever lightning in a bottle that Hornacek had his first year in Phoenix (when the Suns somehow went 48-34) must have gotten lost somewhere. Hornacek hasn’t looked the same since, with his current Knicks team flailing more than they should, given some solid veterans on the team.
Normally I’d say that Hornacek would still be “safe,” given that he’s winding up his first year with the franchise. However, the murkiness of the Knicks’ leadership will cast some doubts. Hornacek is allegedly gearing up for a total commitment to the Triangle (cue the groans) which is usually what you hear from a coach a few months before they get fired.
If Phil Jackson stays, it’d be difficult for him to fire another coach so quickly. If Jackson leaves, a new GM may want his own man. Still, Hornacek has enough respect around league circles that he should be allowed to stick around for another year at least. verdict: KEEP HIM.
Dave Joerger, Sacramento, 29-45
Don’t look now, but the Kings may actually have their franchise in the right hands. The shadow of DeMarcus Cousins has been lifted, and possibly two Top 10 picks have been left in his wake.
While Vivek may count Buddy Hield as their franchise cornerstone, I would suggest that coach Dave Joerger is actually their best building block. He’s a bright young coach who should be the perfect fit to mold this young franchise going forward. verdict: KEEP HIM.
Alvin Gentry, New Orleans, 31-43
Remember when Alvin Gentry was the hottest coaching candidate in the league? Yeah, that didn’t last long. After puffing up his reputation on the Warriors’ bench, Gentry has looked like the same coach that he’s always been: one with a sub .500 record (396-465 total). He hasn’t made the Pelicans winners in his two years with the franchise, which should put him squarely on the hot seat.
The biggest concern right now is “fit.” Gentry made his reputation for pushing the pace, but now he’s in the unique situation of having two superstar bigs. Presumably, another coach who specializes in that style of play would be better for this team moving forward. Regardless of whether the team ultimately trades DeMarcus Cousins or not, this is still an attractive job opening that should draw in a top notch name. Hopefully, the team gets it right next time. verdict: FIRE HIM.
Fred Hoiberg, Chicago, 35-39
Nobody benefited from the “Kerr Effect” like Fred Holberg. Count me as one of many who believed that Hoiberg would mimic Kerr’s success. He had all the same virtues: the affable, low-key former player who understood the benefit of the 3-point shot. Hoiberg had even proven himself as a good college coach, leading Iowa State to the NCAA Tournament 4 years in a row before landing with the Bulls.
Given all that, his two-year run with Chicago has been a colossal disappointment. His dismissal isn’t a certainty, though, as he’s still tight with GM Gar Foreman. Although to be fair to Hoiberg, his buddy Gar may have set him up for failure with this roster. While Hoiberg’s patented coaching (and playing) style was to space the court, the Bulls went in the completely opposite direction with non-shooters like Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade. Even star Jimmy Butler is a mediocre 3-shooter.
Given all that, hardcore changes need to be made. The Bulls need to decide whether to build around Butler (and establish a defensive identity) or build around Hoiberg (which would mean a massive shakeup to the roster). Personally, and stubbornly, I’m still a Hoiberg believer, so I’m going with an upset here. verdict: KEEP HIM
Nate McMillan, Indiana, 37-37
The Legend Larry Bird thought he could jumpstart the roster by firing Frank Vogel and promoting Nate McMillan instead. Not so much. In fact, McMillan’s Pacers team has been worse than Vogel’s so far, regressing from a +1.7 point differential down to -0.9 this season.
To be fair, McMillan’s actually a better coach than people give him credit for being lately. He has a career record of 515-489, and a history of working with the U.S. Olympic team as well. He’d be a solid coach for some teams.
But are the Pacers the right team, right now? It all depends on Paul George‘s future. If the Pacers want to keep George in tow, then they need to shake up this culture again, considering the fact that he’s already complaining about the locker room. If they want to trade George and embrace a total rebuild, McMillan is a fine coach for that.
Personally, I’d hang on to a young superstar like George (who’s only 26) however, I can, which would mean a new coach may have to come on board as a last ditch effect. verdict: FIRE HIM.
Doc Rivers, L.A. Clippers, 44-31
Doc’s the only playoff head coach that I’m considering firing because even the Clippers admit that their run is becoming stagnant. In fact, “stagnant” may be too kind. This will be Doc Rivers’ 4th year running the Clippers and will be the 4th year in a row that their loss total will increase (from 25 to 26 to 29 to 31 and counting this year). The core isn’t getting any younger, so changes may have to be made.
I doubt those changes include a coaching hire, though. Doc Rivers is too entrenched in Clipper-land to let that happen; even the GM is his buddy/crony Lawrence Frank. More likely, a roster shakeup would occur, even if it means seeing Blake Griffin in a different uniform.
I’m not a big “blow it up!” guy when it comes to good-but-not-great teams like the Clippers (or Raptors). There’s nothing wrong with being a #3 or #4 seed and losing in the second round. In today’s NBA, when you’re faced with super teams like the Warriors and Cavs, that’s to be expected. In both cases, with Doc and Dwane Casey, I’d recommend the franchises be happy with where they’re at and make adjustments rather than overhauls. verdict: KEEP HIM.
Conclusion
After typing this out, I just realized that I “fired” 3 black coaches and 0 white ones, even ones that would be popular to can like Fred Hoiberg. Hopefully, people see that as a coincidence, but I’m happy to hear any complaints or accusations of racism down below.
Who would YOU fire? Let me know.
