Here are some candidates to consider.
PG Kyrie Irving, Boston
Can Kyrie sustain this level of success without LeBron James around?
Clearly, Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics believe that Kyrie Irving is a true superstar. Around the league, it’s more divided than that. Did Irving ride LeBron’s coattails? Or did LeBron actually hold Kyrie back from showcasing himself as a true top 5/10 player in the league?
Irving is going to have the opportunity to step into Isaiah Thomas‘ big/little shoes and light it up from a scoring perspective. And obviously, we’re all going to look forward to the inevitable Boston vs. Cleveland, LeBron vs. Kyrie showdown in the playoffs.
PG Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
Russell Westbrook had one of the most polarizing MVP campaigns I can remember. Some believe it was one of the best NBA seasons of all time. Others believe he stat chased and didn’t even deserve to win the award at all.
It’ll be interesting to see how well Westbrook can adjust his game to incorporate new stars, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Former teammate Kevin Durant apparently didn’t believe that Westbrook and co. could help him win the title — so can they prove him wrong? Westbrook adjusting his game — even slightly — and leading OKC deeper into the playoffs would confirm his status as a top 5 player.
PG Ricky Rubio, Utah
Ricky Rubio’s always been in Minnesota, so it’s been hard to gauge how much responsibility he deserves for their perpetual underachievement. Now, we’re going to have our answer. Rubio will be replaced by a solid PG in Jeff Teague in MN and will replace a solid PG in George Hill now in Utah.
For the first time in a while, we’ll be able to study all those test cases and determine how much Rubio’s unique brand of basketball and unique skill set contributes to winning basketball (or not).
PG Elfrid Payton, Orlando
Believe it or not, but Elfrid Payton is entering Year 4 in the NBA. It’s gone by in a blur, mostly because no one cares about the Orlando Magic.
But make no mistake: this is a big year for the franchise. Payton and Aaron Gordon have shown flashes, but not a lot of consistency so far. Both will be free agents this summer, so this will be their best chance to prove that they’re true franchise cornerstones (or not). Payton’s NBA future, and his bank account may depend on it.
PG D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn
D’Angelo Russell is only 21 years old, but there are only so many chances that a young star gets to be a franchise centerpiece before a team’s eyes start to wander away from him. That clearly happened in Los Angeles, so now Russell will get his second chance in Brooklyn.
Most of us are bullish on his prospects there, citing him as a likely Most Improved candidate who can possibly break out to the tune of 20 points per game. But if Russell continues to disappoint, perhaps he’ll be longer be talked about much at all.
SG Avery Bradley, Detroit
Based on the eye test, Avery Bradley is an excellent defender. Statistically, he’s not all that amazing when trying to guard bigger shooting guards, which he’s had to do in Boston and will have to do again in Detroit.
Bradley’s ability to shine outside of Boston will mean a lot — both to Detroit’s chances of rebounding into the playoffs, and to Bradley’s own future. He’ll be a free agent next summer. If he looks great, he’ll be overwhelmed with huge offers. If not, he’ll be seen as an unconventional piece that may not fit certain teams.
SG Marcus Smart, Boston
Bradley’s former teammate in Boston will step into his role with the Celtics, and perhaps log a lot of minutes at the shooting guard position. I wouldn’t be shocked if he cracks 30 minutes a game since the Celts are thin at the position.
How will a slimmed down Smart do with an expanded role? It’ll be important because he’s also a free agent this summer. If Smart continues to struggle with his shot — and doesn’t establish himself as a dominant defender — then it’ll be hard for him to draw seven-digit annual offers.
PF Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
Chris Paul is gone, putting Blake Griffin back in the spotlight as the Clippers’ signature star. The team actually surrounded him with complementary pieces like Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari that should be ideally suited for his particular skill set. Given that, it wouldn’t shock me if Griffin has a monster season, flirting with MVP numbers and a playoff berth.
IF he stays healthy. If he does not, then his contract may become a huge albatross that could hang around this franchise’s neck for quite a while.
PF Aaron Gordon, Orlando
Gordon’s in the same position as Elfrid Payton, entering Year 4 and looking at possible free agent gold at the end of the rainbow. Gordon’s athleticism and upside leads me to believe that he’ll still get paid even if he doesn’t have great numbers. But that creates another interesting wrinkle: if Gordon does in fact thrive, he could become a hugely sought-after free agent. Will Orlando be able to keep him in the fold, despite a limited amount of talent around him? The young core with the Suns (the state where he went to college) would be an intriguing landing spot.
C Nerlens Noel, Dallas
In terms of finances, Nerlens Noel has the most to prove/earn based on his play this season. He has to be crushed that he could only earn a one-year qualifying offer, and how he licks his wounds and responds will go a long way to determining his future.
Personally, I believe that Noel’s skill set is so unique that he merits a big investment, possibly even a max deal. The NBA, on the other hand, seems to collectively disagree with me. If Rick Carlisle and the Mavs let Noel loose with 30+ minutes this year, we’ll find out our answer.
C DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans
There are only so many situations/coaches/teammates a player gets before his excuses run out. DeMarcus Cousins may be a statistical monster, but he hasn’t contributed to winning basketball so far.
The construction of talent in New Orleans is wonky — all point guards and bigs — but there’s still enough talent there to justify a playoff trip. If they fail, then I’d expect sweeping changes. To me, an Anthony Davis trade would be premature, but cleaning house with Alvin Gentry, Dell Demps, and Cousins (a FA) would be likely.
Other candidates
ISAIAH THOMAS (cle): His free agent haul will depend on how he does and how healthy he is.
JAMES HARDEN and CHRIS PAUL (hou): Obviously this will be a great chance for them to change their playoff history. However, if they fail to go far, I’d tend to blame the roster construction and building around two ball-handlers.
ANDREW WIGGINS (min): His reputation in terms of the media and fanbases will be scrutinized, but he’s still getting paid either way.
DERRICK ROSE (cle): He has a great opportunity to change the narrative on his career right now. I didn’t include him because I naturally presumed he doesn’t have much left in the tank, but I could be wrong; he’s only 28, after all.
LONZO BALL (lal): Rarely has a rookie been under this much spotlight/pressure.
