Sam Darnold has struggled so far this season.
Every week, I’ve been writing a series that charts the college QB horse race for the #1 QB (and presumptive #1 pick in the draft.)
Every week, USC redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold has been #1 on my rankings, despite some up-and-down performances along the way.
However, depending on the results of other games this weekend, it feels likely that Darnold will lose his perch at #1 based on his performance in a loss at Washington State. Darnold didn’t play a great game (15/29 passing, 164 yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 2 rush TD), but it’s more of a matter of season-long issues than this one particular game.
All year long, Darnold’s virtues as a franchise QB have been obvious. He’s got a very strong arm, coupled with solid size and solid athleticism. He has the “tools” of a #1 pick.
However, there have been two negatives with Darnold that I’ve been able to overlook thus far. The first is his recent flurry of interceptions. After only 9 interceptions as a redshirt sophomore, Darnold’s tossed 8 picks in only 5 games this year. I excused that with the basic shrug of interceptions happen. In their final years in college, Deshaun Watson threw 17 picks. Jameis Winston coughed up 18. And Matt Ryan, the safe pro passer, threw 19 as a senior at BC.
The second knock against Darnold has been his release — which is more extended of a wind-up than most passers. The unconventional release didn’t bother me terribly because Darnold still generated a lot of power and accuracy on his throws. In terms of pure arm strength and delivery, he still felt like the best passer in the bunch.
However, more and more, it’s becoming obvious that those two flaws are inherently linked. The more you watch Darnold, the more you notice how his release — that slower, wind-up delivery — basically serves to telegraph his passes. That extension gives defenders an extra split second to know where the pass is going and make a play on the football. Given that, it’s no surprise that they’ve managed to jump a few routes and grab some picks.
Going forward, it’s not a death knell for Darnold’s chances of thriving in the NFL. He can still fine-tune his release, utilize his natural gifts, and be a star QB. However, I presume that NFL coaches will have to work on his release and maybe overhaul it completely. That means that Darnold is more of a “project” than you’re used to seeing in a top 5 QB pick and riskier as a result. UCLA’s Josh Rosen doesn’t have as many natural gifts, but he’s a more polished, more pro-ready NFL passer at the moment. Right now, I’d have Rosen moving slightly ahead of Darnold as a result.
The season’s only halfway over right now, so we’ll see how it all shakes out, but it may be time to put the “Darnold is #1” narrative on hold for now.
