Isaiah Thomas isn’t going anywhere.
Look, I totally understand the logic behind the idea that the Boston Celtics should trade Isaiah Thomas now. They can try to ship him off for different assets in order to get a bigger lineup on the floor, and also to open up room for Markelle Fultz in the starting backcourt.
Resident Celtic expert/superfan Bill Simmons floated the idea again on his podcast today with Kevin O’Connor, mentioning a possible IT/Jae Crowder package for someone like Jimmy Butler. I imagine we can hear more hypothetical deals floated like this, with an eye to shake up the Celtics core and get them over the hump.
But here’s the problem: no team is going to trade for Isaiah Thomas. That is, no team is going to trade genuine, difference-making assets for Isaiah Thomas. Among the reasons why:
(1) His size/defense
Offensively, Isaiah Thomas had one of the greatest, most efficient seasons ever. Still, his size is always going to limit him on the defensive end, which has been well-documented in the media and well-known by other teams in the league. ESPN’s real +/- is a flawed stat, but it ranks Isaiah Thomas as a -3.89 in impact per 100 possessions. That ranks him #91 out of the #91 eligible point guards in the league. That ranks him #467 out of #468 players in the league.
It’s not quite the “he’ll get you 40, and give up 40” refrain, but it’s more like “he’ll get you 30, give up 25” idea that people take as gospel, and severely limits his perceived value. Even in an offense-oriented league, teams aren’t going to bet the future of their franchise around a player like that.
(2) His injury/age
Thomas is going to be recovering from a hip injury that we don’t know much about. Still, that’s a big concern for a 5’9″ player who’s already 28 years old. If that injury limits his quickness in any way, then there’s the potential for a steep decline. Little guards don’t age well in the NBA, even the ones who shoot as well as Isaiah Thomas.
(3) His contract
Thomas is on a team-friendly $6.26 million dollar contract for next season, but he’s a free agent the year after. Teams are not going to want to give up asset for an expiring contract, unless they’re confident that Thomas will sign an extension with them — and that they want Thomas to sign a big extension for them.
All those factors that limit Thomas’ trade value will also limit his future contract as well. Is there a team out there that is going to offer Thomas the max? Maayyybe. I can see that being more likely on a shorter-term 2 or 3 year deal. In terms of the 4 or 5 year deals? I find that very unlikely.
But that’s the thing: if you’re willing to gamble on the max for Isaiah Thomas, why trade for him now? The competition to pay Isaiah Thomas the max next summer will not be rabid — you’ll be one of only a few teams considering it.
Conclusion
Given that confluence of factors mentioned, what is the REALISTIC haul the Celtics could get for a Isaiah Thomas trade?
When you think of “best case scenario,” you tend to pick on the teams that are considered to be poorly run. Would the Kings trade the #5 pick to reunite with IT? It’s unlikely. Would the Lakers trade a young asset like Julius Randle for him? Probably not, given all their guards. Would the Sixers give you Dario Saric or the future Lakers pick? I doubt it, given Isaiah’s age and the cap room they have to acquire another PG on their own.
Scouring the league, there are very few realistic trade options out there for Isaiah Thomas (and no, Bill, Jimmy Butler isn’t one of them). If you can think of a realistic one, feel free to submit it below.
But all in all, the lack of trade options is not necessarily a bad thing for the Celtics fans. Isaiah Thomas probably has more value to them than he does anywhere else, factoring in his instant offense and his popularity in the market. If I was Danny Ainge, I’d play out the year and try to see if the IT / Markelle Fultz / Avery Bradley backcourt combo will work. Then, after the season, if IT proves he’s healthy, I’d consider bringing him back (with an eye to maybe shift him to the 6th man role in the future).
To me, that’s the Celtics’ best play. In fact, it’s their only play. Because right now, the trade market will not be kind to Thomas.
