Can the Cubs make it back to the World Series next season
Since 1990, very few teams have been able to consistently get deep into the playoffs in a position to reach the World Series. The Atlanta Braves owned the 90’s in the AL East, but only got 1 World Series win. The Yankees won 4 from 1996 – 2000.
These teams were historically great, but no team has been able to repeat a World Series win since 2000. Why is that?
The rise of “going into free agency” to garner more financial security has reduced the occurrence of teams keeping “super entities” together. It likely would have been impossible, had the 90’s player market been similar to today’s, that the Braves would have been able to keep Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and the other key role players.
An additional issue is that the luxury tax increase has reduced the willingness of team to just pay for the best team. Fewer and fewer teams are willing to take a large hit from the luxury tax to keep a lineup together; the teams focus on the key players, and find cheaper, comparable options for the role positions.
So, all of that background to define why the Cubs are poised to win the Series in 2018.
1. Solid bullpen
The Cubs have made some shrewd moves this offseason, shoring up the bullpen with affordable talent that will deliver when need be. Brandon Morrow looks to step in as the closer, but the Cubs also have Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and CJ Edwards that have all either had success as closers or have lights out stuff. The addition of another starter can move Mike Montgomery to the bullpen, giving the Cubs two lefties and a swingman.
2. Better offensive numbers
The Cubs core players took a hit in terms of WAR from 2016 to 2017. In 2016, the Cubs were third in runs scored, and first in walks. In 2017, the team actually scored more runs and was ranked fourth. The Cubs also were ranked second in walks. However, between the two years, the clubs WAR offensively dropped from 54.4 in 2016 to -1.3 in 2017. Needless to say, this is a significant drop. Kyle Scwarber has committed to a new conditioning program and will bounce back as a hitter from his strikeout numbers in 2017. Kris Bryant will continue to get better, especially if he can continue to keep his strikeout rate below 20%. Anthony Rizzo, if he progresses in a similar fashion, will be a dark horse MVP candidate. These three, in addition to Joe Maddon’s magic in moving lineups around, should produce a much more effective offense in 2018. Admittedly based on a small sample size, the adjustments between years the Cubs have shown they are capable of making show that 2018 will be another exciting year in Wrigleyville.
3. Continued defensive excellence The Cubs, since 2015, have ranked far and away the best defense in terms of WAR, with a total score of 245.3. The historic 2016 season has a lot to do with this, but the Cubs still ranked first last season, and look to be as good in 2018, if not better.
With Schwarber making the commitment to the outfield, his defensive skills can only improve. Almora Jr will be given more opportunities, especially if his split against righties improves over last season. Almora Jr and Jason Heyward in the outfield give the Cubs two gold glove outfielders at a time. Addison Russell and Javy Baez/Ben Zobrist will provide great defense up the middle, and Anthony Rizzo and Wilson Contreras will round out the defensive group. As long as the pitching can keep the ball on the ground or produce easy fly balls, this Cubs defense will continue to keep the runs off the scoreboard.
