What could a Didi Gregorius extension cost the Yankees?
Rewind to the 2014 offseason; after twenty seasons in pinstripes, Yankees captain and future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter walked away from the game at 40. After the Yankees won five World Series championships with Jeter, General Manager Brian Cashman set out to complete the unenviable task of acquiring Jeter’s replacement. On December 5th, news broke that the Yankees had found their shortstop of the future, acquiring Didi Gregorius in exchange for relief pitcher Shane Green in a three-team trade with the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. At the time, Gregorius, 24, was coming off of a .226/.290/.363 season with 1.1 WAR in 88 games.
In his first season with the Yankees, Gregorius had an up-and-down year in 2015 in his first go-around as Jeter’s replacement, hitting .265/.318/.370 with 9 HR and 56 RBI, albeit with a career-high 3.1 WAR. The following season saw Gregorius begin his offensive rise, as he set career highs across the board by hitting .276/.304/.447 with 68 runs scored, 155 hits, 32 doubles, 20 HR and 70 RBI. One noticeable difference between Gregorius and Jeter early on was the former’s strong defense, with 1.5 dWAR from 2015-2016.
Despite not making his season debut until April 28th due to injuries sustained in the WBC, 2017 was Gregorius’ breakout year with the Yankees both on and off the field. On social media, “Sir” Didi became a fan favorite for his emoji-filled celebration tweets after every Yankee victory. On the field, Gregorius emerged as one of the best shortstops in baseball, producing 3.7 WAR by hitting .287/.318/.478 with 25 HR, 87 RBI, and a 106 OPS+. Defensively, Gregorius was strong yet again, with 0.9 dWAR, and 1 Defensive Runs Saved. Despite setting career highs in numerous offensive categories, Gregorius saved his best work for the postseason; with the Yankees down 3-0 in the first inning of a win-or-go-home AL Wild Card game against the Twins, Gregorius brought Yankee Stadium back to life with a three-run home run in the bottom of the frame to tie the game at three in an eventual Yankee history. Additionally, in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians, Gregorius had three RBI in the Yankees 5-2 victory, hitting two home runs off of AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (including one in the first inning) to help punch the Yankees ticket to the ALCS.
Every season he has been with the Yankees, Gregorius has improved each year, increasing his home run, runs batted in, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and runs scored total each of his three seasons in New York. If the start to this season is any occasion, Gregorius will do the same thing again in 2018, as through 12 games he is hitting .359/.471/.795 with 3 HR, and a league-leading 12 RBI and 249 OPS+. Currently slotted as the Yankees number-four hitter behind Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and in front of Gary Sanchez, the Yankees have trusted Gregorius to remain a key offensive producer with runners on base.
This offseason, the Yankees, and Gregorius agreed to an $8.5 million deal to avoid arbitration; this offseason, Gregorius will be arbitration eligible for the final team, before hitting free agency following the 2019 season at 29. With that in mind, we will try and construct what a potential contract extension between the Yankees and Gregorius could look like based on recent extensions signed by shortstops.
- Brandon Crawford, six-years, $75 million with the San Francisco Giants: When Crawford signed his extension, he was coming off a career-best 2015 season where he made his first All-Star appearance and set a career high with 5.5 WAR. Offensively, Crawford is a notch below Gregorius, hitting a career 252/.316/.394, and averaging 12 HR and 67 RBI per seasons as a regular. However, Crawford has long been regarded as one of the premier defenders at shortstop, with three Gold Glove Awards, 12.5 Defensive WAR, and 72 Defensive Runs Saved. At the time of his extension, Crawford was 28 years old, and since signing the deal, he has hit .264/.324/.417 while averaging 13 HR, 80 RBI, 31 2B, 6 3B, a 98 OPS+, and 3.55 WAR from 2016-2017.
- Elvis Andrus, eight-years $120 million with the Texas Rangers: Prior to the 2013 season, the Rangers locked up the then twenty-four-year-old Andrus after he had made two All-Star appearances in his first four seasons in the MLB, helping the Rangers to World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 in the process. From 2013-2015, the deal seemed like it may have been an overpay on the part of the Rangers, as Andrus hit .264/.317/.340 with averages of 4 HR, 57 RBI, 77 runs scored, an 81 OPS+, and 2.3 WAR. However, there were some encouraging stats, such as Andrus averaging 31 steals over the three-year span. Although Andrus’ speed numbers are slightly down the past two seasons (24 steals per season), he has revived himself at the plate, hitting .299/.348/.457 and averaging 14 HR, 78 RBI, 88 runs scored, 38 doubles, a 109 OPS+, and 4.2 WAR. Defensively, Andrus has been above average over the life of his extension, with 4.3 dWAR.
- Jean Segura, five-year, $70 million with the Seattle Mariners: While Segura was never a bad hitter, he broke out in a big way with the Diamondbacks in 2016, leading the NL with 203 hits and hitting .319/.368/.499 with 20 HR, 64 RBI, 33 stolen bases, 102 runs scored, 41 doubles, and 5.5 WAR, almost all of which were career highs. After he was traded to the Mariners in the offseason, Segura, then 27, proved the team was right in giving him an extension, hitting .300/.349/.427 with 11 HR, 45 RBI, and 3.2 WAR in 125 games. Ten games into 2018, he is hitting .333/.478/.476 atop the Mariners lineup.
With these three big extensions and other, smaller deals for Andrelton Simmons, Tim Anderson, and Paul DeJong in mind, I expect the Yankees to offer Gregorius something in the range of a five-year, $75 million extension based on his age and production. Whatever his contract ends up being, many Yankee fans like myself agree that the Yankees would be foolish to let Gregorius go, as he has quickly become one of the team’s most popular players, much like a certain shortstop some were worried he wouldn’t be able to replace.
- TAGS
- Contract Extension
- Didi Gregorius
- New York Yankees
